Do BRICS Catch Flu?
It isn’t exactly the Thai baht, but the dong was slightly devalued yesterday. Vietnam reduced its reference rate by about 1% (the reference rate is the midpoint in a currency corridor for the...
View ArticleBeyond US Bonds, Taper Pressuring Global Dollar Funding
The Reserve Bank of India was again spotted in the forex markets, as the rupee again nears its record low against the dollar. While India has myriad problems that add up to foreign exchange imbalances,...
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Obtaining Dollars In A Post-gold System
The emerging market story has unfortunately been turned into, as the kids say, a meme. According to Bloomberg, the “weakest” of the EM currencies have been dubbed the “Fragile Five” by Morgan Stanley...
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Occam’s Oil
As my colleague Joe Calhoun continually reminds us, everything that happens has happened before. The ongoing “struggle” to define what is driving crude oil prices lower is perhaps another instance of a...
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The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble
By the behavior of the Chinese yuan itself, given the financial size here, we can readily assume that any “dollar” problem that is clearly causing the PBOC’s actions are sizable. Currencies throughout...
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Still More Inventory
The only piece of the GDP revision to note is that the BEA is still having great difficulty estimating inventory. That isn’t surprising since businesses in this area are behaving far different than any...
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Rising Dollar = Dollar Shortage = Global Liquidity Shortage
Before October 1997, what would become known as the Asian flu was just another opportunity for the mainstream to dismiss what many people, including many prominent, competent people, had been warning...
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Accounting, Monetarily, For The Global Economy
From the outside, it appears as if Wall Street operates like a bureaucracy. There is an enormous amount of paperwork, endless committees who conduct endless meetings, and layers of management...
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Still No Up
The Asian flu of the late 1990’s might have been more accurately described as the Asian dollar flu. It was the first major global test of the mature eurodollar system, and it was a severe disruption in...
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BOND ROUT!!!! (Now With Additional Exclamations)
Ten years ago today, one of Carlyle Group’s mortgage funds, Carlyle Capital Corp (CCC), was seized by creditors. Precipitated by dwindling liquidity, the fund’s effective insolvency would amplify those...
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Brazil Money Math
On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in...
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COT Blue: Biggest Warning Yet
The problem, or one of them anyway, with so many glaring market warnings is that it becomes difficult to keep up with all of them. You tend to focus on those right in front of you, the more immediate...
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Inflation Falls Again, Dot-com-like
US inflation in January 2019 was, according to the CPI, the lowest in years. At just 1.55% year-over-year, the index hadn’t suggested this level since September 2016 right at the outset of what would...
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Curves Rhyme, Too
People have started to look back fondly upon the Asian flu. It was as global disaster, a dollar shortage which spread all across mostly Asia but not exclusively. The reason why it is talked about...
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The Chicago Way Isn’t Even Partway And It’s Still Not Good For Powell, US...
In March 1999, Economists James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics seeking answers for an inflation problem. For many years, it had...
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Durable Goods And 1998
We have arrived at revisions season once again. It’s that time of year when many if not most (I don’t actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from...
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Accounting, Monetarily, For The Global Economy
From the outside, it appears as if Wall Street operates like a bureaucracy. There is an enormous amount of paperwork, endless committees who conduct endless meetings, and layers of management...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Still No Up
The Asian flu of the late 1990’s might have been more accurately described as the Asian dollar flu. It was the first major global test of the mature eurodollar system, and it was a severe disruption in...
View ArticleClik here to view.
BOND ROUT!!!! (Now With Additional Exclamations)
Ten years ago today, one of Carlyle Group’s mortgage funds, Carlyle Capital Corp (CCC), was seized by creditors. Precipitated by dwindling liquidity, the fund’s effective insolvency would amplify those...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Brazil Money Math
On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in...
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